Electoral Overperformance

By Sean Skoog, Summer 2023 Collaborator at Power in Place

Image from: Britannica

A common term used in political circles is “partisan baseline”, often using either the last presidential election or a state or district’s Partisan Vote Index (PVI, which measures a state’s margin relative to the national popular vote) as a reference point. A candidate “overperforming” or “underperforming” this baseline means that their party either did better or worse than what is typically expected by a member of their party in their district or state. Partisan overperformances were particularly commonplace during the midterm elections of 2022 when both parties saw notable overperformances in various statewide and districtwide races. One such example is Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, who won by a margin of 9.6% in 2018 and 10.5% in 2022, which greatly exceeded the Democratic margins in the preceding presidential elections, when Hillary Clinton lost by 0.2% in 2016, and Joe Biden won by 2.8% in 2020.

Gretchen Whitmer’s 2022 win was notable for several reasons. First of all, 2022 was expected to be a very Republican year (or “red wave”) nationwide, as the party that holds the presidency typically loses congressional and gubernatorial seats in midterm years. Prior to 2022, the last time Michigan elected a governor from the same party as the incumbent president was in 1990, and that was by a margin of less than 1%. Additionally, Whitmer did better than Biden two years prior in every county in the state and improved compared to Biden among nearly every demographic. The other two Democratic statewide officials who won reelection in 2022, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, also outperformed Biden two years prior, with Benson winning by an even larger margin than Whitmer did (she won by a whopping margin of 13.9%, better than any Democrat for president in the past half-century except Obama’s first election in 2008 when he won Michigan by 16%).

There are several factors that explain why the statewide Democratic slate did so well in Michigan in 2022. One notable factor is Dobbs v. Jackson, the United States Supreme Court case that overturned Roe v. Wade and returned the status of abortion rights to the states in June 2022. In Michigan, an abortion ban from 1931 would have come into effect had the state Supreme Court not halted its implementation. A ballot initiative overturning the ban and enshrining the right to an abortion in the state constitution was on the ballot in November 2022, and it may have created an environment with a higher turnout from women, who would have been directly affected by the ban. All three statewide Democratic candidates supported the proposition, and abortion was seen as one of the most important issues in Michigan that year. The proposition ended up passing by 13%, outperforming two of the three statewide Democrats, and slightly underperforming Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (whose opponent was extremely controversial). All of the statewide officeholders in Michigan made sure to focus on issues that the majority of the population supported, while their opponents took more partisan positions even when they were unpopular. This reinforces how it is always important to recognize the political positions of your electorate, and to try and minimize or avoid discussing issues that you support if the majority of the population opposes them.

Another interesting note about the 2022 statewide elections in Michigan is that the two women who won statewide by more than 10 points (Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson) also had female opponents, while Dana Nessel (who won by 8.6%) had a male opponent. This could potentially suggest that voters may still prefer male candidates when given a choice between a man and a woman, but will not hesitate to vote for a woman when there is no other option (although it is worthwhile to note that Nessel also won by the lowest margin in 2018, and had the lowest approval rating of the three statewide Democrats prior to 2022).

Overall, the results of the statewide elections in 2022 in Michigan show that it is possible for female candidates to significantly overperform how their party typically does in a state or district, as long as they strike the right message with their constituents.

References

[1] “Election 2022.” Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. November 8, 2022. https://uselectionatlas.org/2022.php. 

Sean Skoog is a rising junior at the University of Michigan majoring in Political Science. In his free time, he enjoys discussing and analyzing politics, traveling, and spending time with friends and family. One day, he hopes to be a campaign strategist for a high profile campaign.

Accountability and Change

Image by Paige MacKinnon

AN INTERVIEW WITH REPRESENTATIVE MATTIE DAUGHTRY

BY PAIGE MACKINNON

“We all talk about 2016 being the year of the woman, but what we are about to walk into is the year of accountability on many different fronts.”

— Mattie Daughtry

Representative Mattie Daughtry has been my state representative for eight years and is now running for the District 24 seat on the Maine State Senate. Having met her before and having been her constituent for eight years, I knew that she was passionate, forward-thinking, and driven toward change, but after our interview, I know that she and many other legislators are ready to bring about change and that there is a lot of work that can be done outside of political office.

Accountability

One part of our conversation that really stood out was Mattie’s perspective on what the upcoming election will bring to the political landscape. Representative Daughtry said; 

“We all talk about 2016 being the year of the woman, but what we are about to walk into is the year of accountability on so many different fronts. I want to be able to go home and talk care of my child…I want to make sure I am able to live in my area with access to safe water, I want to make sure that I actually have a chance to survive in my neighborhood. Things are going to change.”

We see that now. Across the nation and the world, conversations around government’s accountability to its citizens and society’s accountability to the world more broadly are occurring. These conversations and the issues they are addressing, such as clean water rights, BIPOC rights and safety, healthcare, climate change, poverty, and education, are not new. However, many of these issues are gaining more attention as the pandemic tears down long-standing structures in our society, and this attention is bringing with it a call for politicians to take responsibility and enact real change. But what can we as citizens do, especially those who aren’t yet eligible to vote, to continue these conversations and ensure that those actions toward accountability are taken? 

The Impact of Young People

In her interview, Representative Daughtry emphasized that there are many changes that need to happen in the coming years and that young people can have an impact in the upcoming election and in the policies that are established in the following years both nationally and locally. In high school, she was involved in voter registration drives to ensure that her peers were voting when she could not. She recommends that the best way for students to make an impact is by being involved in whatever way they can like she did in High School when she organized voter registration drives. This could be working on voter turnout, canvassing and helping on campaigns both local and national, or organizing protests and teach-ins. 

She also encourages holding your representative accountable; Representative Daughtry herself looks at letters and input from the students she speaks to as a guide for her policymaking. Recently, she has seen a shift in student engagement toward very real issues as elementary classrooms discuss climate change and various youth movements gain momentum fighting for justice and equality across the United States. This increase in action is why she sees 2020 as the year of accountability. 

Who can be involved in politics? Everyone.

One of the more powerful and effective political actions you can take is running for office when you see a problem that is not being addressed. When I asked Representative Daughtry what advice she would give young women who are considering running for office, she said, “Just do it.” When she became a Maine legislator, she did not have a law degree, she was not over forty-five, and she did not have a picket fence and two and a half children. She did have conviction, passion, and an ability to listen, the three things she sees as what qualifies someone for office.

Her advice: think about what matters to you and what makes you passionate about your community and use that because “when it comes to policy, government impacts all of our lives at any age whether you’re just born or whether you’re retiring….and what you have to offer and what you have to say is important.”  Your age and your experience do not and cannot restrict your engagement in your local, state, and national politics.