Electoral Overperformance

By Sean Skoog, Summer 2023 Collaborator at Power in Place

Image from: Britannica

A common term used in political circles is “partisan baseline”, often using either the last presidential election or a state or district’s Partisan Vote Index (PVI, which measures a state’s margin relative to the national popular vote) as a reference point. A candidate “overperforming” or “underperforming” this baseline means that their party either did better or worse than what is typically expected by a member of their party in their district or state. Partisan overperformances were particularly commonplace during the midterm elections of 2022 when both parties saw notable overperformances in various statewide and districtwide races. One such example is Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan, who won by a margin of 9.6% in 2018 and 10.5% in 2022, which greatly exceeded the Democratic margins in the preceding presidential elections, when Hillary Clinton lost by 0.2% in 2016, and Joe Biden won by 2.8% in 2020.

Gretchen Whitmer’s 2022 win was notable for several reasons. First of all, 2022 was expected to be a very Republican year (or “red wave”) nationwide, as the party that holds the presidency typically loses congressional and gubernatorial seats in midterm years. Prior to 2022, the last time Michigan elected a governor from the same party as the incumbent president was in 1990, and that was by a margin of less than 1%. Additionally, Whitmer did better than Biden two years prior in every county in the state and improved compared to Biden among nearly every demographic. The other two Democratic statewide officials who won reelection in 2022, Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, also outperformed Biden two years prior, with Benson winning by an even larger margin than Whitmer did (she won by a whopping margin of 13.9%, better than any Democrat for president in the past half-century except Obama’s first election in 2008 when he won Michigan by 16%).

There are several factors that explain why the statewide Democratic slate did so well in Michigan in 2022. One notable factor is Dobbs v. Jackson, the United States Supreme Court case that overturned Roe v. Wade and returned the status of abortion rights to the states in June 2022. In Michigan, an abortion ban from 1931 would have come into effect had the state Supreme Court not halted its implementation. A ballot initiative overturning the ban and enshrining the right to an abortion in the state constitution was on the ballot in November 2022, and it may have created an environment with a higher turnout from women, who would have been directly affected by the ban. All three statewide Democratic candidates supported the proposition, and abortion was seen as one of the most important issues in Michigan that year. The proposition ended up passing by 13%, outperforming two of the three statewide Democrats, and slightly underperforming Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (whose opponent was extremely controversial). All of the statewide officeholders in Michigan made sure to focus on issues that the majority of the population supported, while their opponents took more partisan positions even when they were unpopular. This reinforces how it is always important to recognize the political positions of your electorate, and to try and minimize or avoid discussing issues that you support if the majority of the population opposes them.

Another interesting note about the 2022 statewide elections in Michigan is that the two women who won statewide by more than 10 points (Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson) also had female opponents, while Dana Nessel (who won by 8.6%) had a male opponent. This could potentially suggest that voters may still prefer male candidates when given a choice between a man and a woman, but will not hesitate to vote for a woman when there is no other option (although it is worthwhile to note that Nessel also won by the lowest margin in 2018, and had the lowest approval rating of the three statewide Democrats prior to 2022).

Overall, the results of the statewide elections in 2022 in Michigan show that it is possible for female candidates to significantly overperform how their party typically does in a state or district, as long as they strike the right message with their constituents.

References

[1] “Election 2022.” Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. November 8, 2022. https://uselectionatlas.org/2022.php. 

Sean Skoog is a rising junior at the University of Michigan majoring in Political Science. In his free time, he enjoys discussing and analyzing politics, traveling, and spending time with friends and family. One day, he hopes to be a campaign strategist for a high profile campaign.

1910-1920: A Formative Decade for Women of Color in the American Suffragist Movement

BY: JACQUELINE QIU, WINTER 2021 COLLABORATOR AT POWER IN PLACE

The movement for women’s suffrage, which culminated in the ratification of the 19th amendment in 1920, has yielded many influential figures. While prominent women such as Elizabeth Cady Stanton and Susan B. Anthony often take center stage, there are many influential figures that have been relegated to the hidden corners of history. Such is the case of suffragette women of color: in the decade before the realization of women’s suffrage, from 1910-1920, suffragette women of color greatly contributed to this cause without widespread recognition. Fortunately, efforts are now being made to highlight their impact on the success to the suffrage movement.  From 1910-1920, it is evident that women of color have historically dedicated their lives to political egalitarianism within their right to vote. 

National Portrait Gallery, Smithsonian Gallery, 1898.

Zit Kala-Sa (1876-1938), born of Yankton Sioux ancestry, was a prolific writer and activist that sought to expand opportunities, like suffrage, for Native Americans and promote their cultural equality within the dominance of American federal policy. The Native American culture as a source of pride, instead of devalorisation. In 1916, she became the secretary of the Society of the American Indians and  liaison with the Bureau of Indian Affairs. As the first all American Indian organization, it promoted the  political, socioeconomic, and cultural equality of American Indians. With her dedication to women’s suffrage, she joined the General Foundation of Women’s Clubs as a distinct Native American voice. Furthermore, she eventually became the founder, as well as the President, of the National Council of American Indians in 1926 that united many Indian tribes under the cause of achieving full citizenship through suffrage. Her persistence is exemplified in her commitment to social justice, from women’s suffrage to citizenship to equal education and health care. Zit Kala-Sa embodied the value of the Native American perspective for the fight for women’s suffrage and Native American rights.

Verina Morton Jones (1865-1943) is a vanguard for women in racial justice, suffrage, and medical science. She was the first woman to pass the Mississippi medical board exam, becoming the first woman to be licensed to practice medicine in that state. Additionally, after she moved from Mississippi to New York, she was the first black woman to practice medicine in Nassau County, NY. With her eventual move to Brooklyn, NY, she became president of the Equal Suffrage League, championing the importance of a woman having the right to vote as analogous to her belief in the role of women (especially of color) in medical science. These beliefs were subsequently reflected in her role of director of mother’s clubs in the National Association of Colored Women and leader of the Association for the Protection of Colored Women. The establishment of Lincoln Settlement House, which offered childcare and health services, in 1908 reflected her commitment to helping women in all spheres of life. Jones’ appointment to the Board of Directors of NAACP in 1913 provided a powerful opportunity to advance racial and sociopolitical equity of women of color in society. As a suffragette woman of color, Jones used her high status in medicine to wield immense influence for female equality. 

Courtesy of the Library of Congress.

Likewise, Nannee Helen Burroughs (1879-1961) advanced the cause of women’s suffrage through her elevated status as a black church leader and educator. As the founder of the Women’s Convention, a branch of the National Baptists Convention, she grew this women’s organization into the largest body of African American women in the United States from 1900-1947. Therefore, she exerted a powerful impact on the future of women’s suffrage, with the structural support of the Women’s Convention helping her use church as a vehical of advocacy. The Women’s Convention worked with the National Association of Colored Women (NACW) to ensure the racial and gender justice, emphasizing the cause of suffrage.  She also promoted the education of poor African American women, with the establishment of the National Training School of Women that was popular in the first  half of the twentieth century. She also wrote in support of women’s suffrage in Crisis Magazine. Burroughs became an important advocate for women’s suffrage with her tremendous accomplishments within the educational and religious spheres for black women. 

Portrait of Ida B. Wells Burnett.

Ida B. Wells Barnett (1862-1931) was a significant figure, as a dual advocate for racial justice and women’s suffrage. While living in Memphis, TN, she led anti-lynching movements in the press as a noteworthy journalist and newspaper editor. This fervor for eradicating racial violence continued as she wrote for the Chicago Conservator and published The Red Record to highlight activism for anti-lynching. While in Chicago, her activism for gender equality and women’s suffrage grew; in fact, in 1913, Barnett established the first suffrage club for black women in Illinois, the Alpha Suffrage Club for African American women. The Alpha Suffrage Club published newsletters advocating for female suffrage, educated black women in civics, and promoting the merited racial and political equality of women. In addition, Barnett marched in the 1913 suffrage parade in Washington, D.C., with white suffragists to emphasize the universality of women’s suffrage. Furthermore, she co-founded the National Association of Colored Women in 1896 and National Association for the Advancement of Colored People in 1909. This dedication to eradicate racial prejudice and violence and advance the cause of African American women, elevated Barnett to a very prominent role in American society.

1911 Photo of Marie Louise Bottineau Baldwin, from her personnel file.

Marie Louise Battineau Baldwin (1863-1952), as a Northern Dakota Turtle Mountain Chippewa, advocated for Native American rights, as well women’s political equality. Augmented by her educational success, as she became the first woman of color to graduate from Washington’s College of Law in 1914, she was a key spokesperson for Native American women and suffrage. In fact, since 1911, she was a prominent suffragette of color, as she met with women across the country and testified before Congress, who married the ends of the suffrage movement with those of the Society of American Indians. She participated in the 1913 suffrage parade in Washington, D.C. that was organized by Alicia Paul, marching with other female lawyers who believed in suffrage. Furthermore, Baldwin was part of the key suffragettes who met with President Woodrow Wilson in 1914 to advocate for the women’s right to vote. As defender of both Native American and women’s rights, Balwin demonstrated the relevance of the Native American voice in achieving socio-political equality for marginalized groups.

Maria de Guadalupe Evangelina López de Lauther was a prominent suffrage activist in the state of California. Her former experience teaching English as a second language at Los Angeles High School and fluency in Spanish allowed her to become a prominent figure in the CA suffrage movement in 1911. From the 1910s, she traveled around the state, speaking about women’s suffrage in both Spanish and English, organizing rallies, and acting as a translator for Spanish speaking citizens. In fact, it is assumed that she is the first figure in the state of CA to speak about women’s suffrage in Spanish. Her influence in this regional suffrage movement culminated in her appointment to be a representative for California suffragists in the 1913 women’s suffrage parade in Washington, D.C. Lopez de Lauther manifested great impact in helping California affirm the right for women to vote in 1912, before the greater national ratification of female suffrage in 1920. Her role as a Latina woman created real opportunities to appeal to an electorate that often only spoke Spanish, and embodied the powerful impact of suffragette women of color.

Idár in 1905.

Jovita Idár (1885-1946) was a Latina journalist, activist, and suffragist who promoted the rights of Mexican Americans in Texas, especially Mexican American women. With her family, she organized the First Mexican Congress in 1911, which sought to support the ongoing revolution in Mexico by unifying those across the border in the U.S. with this cause. The First Mexican Congress worked in conjunction with Idár’s mission to eradicate racial prejudice against Mexican Americans in TX, which have previously yielded noteworthy violence, such as lynching. Furthemore, she was the founder and the first president of La Liga Femenil Mexicanista (League of Mexican Women) that was aimed towards asserting the egalitarianism of Mexican women in the socio-political and cultural terms of American society. At the forefront of her advocacy was women’s suffrage; in fact, she wrote in her family’s newspaper, La Crónica, about the necessity of the right to vote for women. The enfranchisement of women was supported and bolstered by Idár, especially after she took over La Crónica in 1914. Idár’s engagement with eradicating racial injustice against Mexican Americans and the political rights of (Mexican American) women allowed her to become an important suffragette of color. 

These women of color did not permit their race to hinder their passion, commitment, and activism for the suffragette cause. In fact, the color of their skin acted as an effective vehicle for social change, as the ends of sociopolitical equality and racial justice were intertwined. Race, as well as gender, amplified the impact that these women made on the future of suffrage. In the centennial of the 19th amendment in 2020, it is more necessary than ever to honor the contributions of these suffragettes of color. 

References:

1. Mayo, Edith. “African American Women Leaders in the Suffrage Movement.” Suffragist Memorial. 2020. https://suffragistmemorial.org/african-american-women-leaders-in-the-suffrage-movement/

2. “Women of Color and the Fight for Women’s Suffrage.” California Commission on the Status of Women and Girls. 2020. https://women.ca.gov/women-of-color-and-the-fight-for-womens-suffrage/

3. “Marie Louise Bottineau Baldwin” National Park Service. 2020. https://www.nps.gov/people/marie-louise-bottineau-baldwin.htm

4. “Zitkala-Ša (Red Bird / Gertrude Simmons Bonnin).” National Park Service. 2020. https://www.nps.gov/people/zitkala-sa.htm

Jacqueline Qiu is a junior at Middlebury College, double majoring in French and Political Science. She is passionate about humanitarianism, women in politics, mental health awareness and advocacy, and French language and literature. On campus, she is the Co-President of the French club and Active Minds Middlebury.